Today’s market commentary from Andre Botha, Senior Currency Dealer at TreasuryONE:
The Rand traded in a very narrow range last week Friday, as the after effects of the State of the Nation speech hardly affected the markets. This is more of an indication that the President kept to the script that the market expected. However, the big date in everybody is looking at now it the 20th of February and the subsequent budget speech. With so much weight being placed on the budget we could see some lacklustre trade leading up to that.
This week we have the resumption of the US-China trade talks, which always places a little headline risk in the mix, but looking at the market at the moment the feeling is that the EM rally has run out of a little steam. We have seen the Us dollar on the front foot for the past seven sessions, which if it continues, will place the Rand under some pressure.
There are some data releases out this week that are crucial for South Africa when looking at the country’s economy. These numbers include unemployment and manufacturing data. While these numbers may not be market moving, unless they are terrible or shooting out the lights, it will shed some light on the plight of the South African economy.