COMMODITIES CORRELATION IN A PANDEMIC YEAR
To say that last year was unique would be an understatement as the COVID pandemic swept through the world, causing mass lockdowns in most countries. The pandemic changed the economic landscape fore
Creating space for an Oil Crisis
The US oil rig count fell by 75% to 180 rigs in less than four months afterwards, the lowest level on record.
Is this the end of the Dollar as we know it?
If the FED chooses to underwrite government spending (as in the 1960s), the dollar will take the strain. Back then, the dollar fell 50% vs the Deutschemark and Yen.
The Investment Case for Gold
The gold and other international financial markets may be facing the greatest challenges since Richard Nixon closed the ‘gold window’ in August 1971.
The Greatest Option Squeeze
This sustained call option buying has put a fire under the market, driving it to levels which are indefensible from a valuation perspective.
Global Oil market is set for an extended period of soft prices
We are on record as having forecast a general decline in the price of crude oil for the second half of 2020. Our overriding rationale for this stance is that we believe the optimistic views of a sw
Red Lights are flashing – “Canis canem edit”
Positive sentiment towards equities is practically at unprecedented levels. Valuations are at positive extremes which largely ignore the significant economics risks, which persist in the wake of th
A View of South Africa’s Financial Market Liquidity and Funding
The South African government has been dramatically exposed as an emperor without clothes in the first half of 2020 and they are no longer the borrower of choice for lending institutions.
Game Theory, Covid-19 and South African Public Finances
By virtually any metric South African government finances are in disarray. An already vulnerable position has been exacerbated by the entirely unexpected Covid-19 global pandemic.
The Gold-Oil Ratio, What Is It Telling Us?
The gold-oil ratio is a good indicator of the health of the economy, a low ratio indicates a healthy economy; whereas, a higher ratio indicates an economy in distress.